August 19, 2026
Hey traders and investors,
As we head into the final stretch of August, it’s worth remembering that this time of year often brings seasonal quiet and weakness. The end-of-summer doldrums can leave markets thin, with lower volume and a tendency for consolidations or mild pullbacks as traders ease into the typically softer September/October period. Don’t let any short-term chop throw you off your game—these periods have historically created excellent opportunities for those who stay focused on the bigger picture.
I discussed my overall market view on Making Money with Charles Payne on Fox Business yesterday. Learn more in the link below:
Major areas of focus for me right now include semiconductors, memory stocks, retail earnings, and upcoming earnings from Nvidia and Broadcom. But, I spotted another setup this morning I wanted to discuss with you…
Let’s dig into the metals, because the weekly charts on gold and silver are flashing some very constructive reversals and bullish patterns.
Gold (/GC) – The Clear Leader
Gold is showing the stronger setup right now. After the multi-month correction from the highs near $5,626, price has carved out a solid base and is reversing higher with conviction. On the weekly, we’re seeing a clear bounce off the key moving averages, with the most recent candles turning higher and reclaiming important levels. Gold has already broken up above nearby resistance, putting it in a leadership position versus silver. I’m particularly focused on the $4,625 area—a major resistance zone that aligns with the 200-day SMA on the daily chart.
Once gold powers through that level with follow-through, the path opens toward my next major price target of $5,000. The Fibonacci extensions on the weekly (61.8% near $4,988 and higher) support this upside trajectory. Momentum indicators like the Squeeze are still working through the lower readings, but the price action itself is already turning constructive. This is exactly the kind of technical setup that has me eyeing opportunities to add more physical bullion on strength or controlled pullbacks.
Silver (/SI) – Playing Catch-Up
Silver is also reversing higher on the weekly timeframe and showing its own bullish patterns after the deep correction from the $121 area. Price is bouncing off the rising longer-term moving averages and has started to stabilize with higher closes. While silver hasn’t yet broken above its nearest resistance as cleanly as gold has, the structure is improving, and the relative strength gap could close if gold continues to lead. The weekly Squeeze is deep in the red, which often precedes explosive moves once the compression releases. Silver remains a strong companion play, but gold is clearly the stronger of the two right now.
Bottom Line
The metals are giving us classic reversal signatures after a healthy correction. Gold’s break above resistance puts it in the driver’s seat, and I’m treating any further strength—or orderly dips—as an opportunity to accumulate more physical bullion. Clear the $4,625 hurdle on gold, and $5,000 becomes the high-probability next magnet.
Stay disciplined, respect the seasonal backdrop, and keep your eyes on relative strength. The best setups often appear when the calendar feels quiet.
Trade well,
VP of Options | Simpler Trading
