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Going into AMD earnings, I thought the selloff had gone too far. I was bullish on the data center business, but I still wanted to see buyers come back in.
My Pre-Earnings Analysis on Schwab Network
I joined Schwab Network’s The Watch List today to talk about AMD, the PC slowdown and what I’m watching in SMH and the Nasdaq. This was before the earnings release.
For tomorrow’s regular session, AMD needs to stay above $500 after the market opens. If it loses $500, I’ll be watching for the rally to fade. I want AMD to hold up so SMH and the Nasdaq can hold their 200-day SMAs.
Watch my November 3 Schwab Network segment on YouTube →
I also covered the setup in my Simpler Trading video last night. Watch my AMD earnings analysis here.
A Dicey Earnings Season
This earnings season has been very dicey. Investors are punishing companies for any type of earnings issue, and AMD reported right in the middle of it.
AMD was looking strong until Intel (INTC) reported. Intel’s report was the most pivotal call of last week. The stock fell 28.6% on Friday, October 30, and lost almost another 9% on Monday, November 2. That is Earnings Destruction, and it broke Intel below the 200 SMA.
The PC slowdown Intel flagged dragged AMD down with it. AMD fell 10.9% on Friday and another 7.5% on Monday going into the report.
Why I Was Bullish on AMD Going Into Earnings
Intel’s overall numbers are much more dependent on the PC market than AMD’s. Going into this report, AMD’s client business accounted for about 27% of its Q2 sales, compared with about half of Intel’s revenue coming from its client business.
I wanted to see whether data center growth could offset the PC slowdown. I thought the stock had already fallen enough to price in bad news. A beaten-down stock with good news can move fast.
AMD Earnings Preview: My Key Levels
The selloff broke the 50- and 100-day SMAs on heavy volume going into the report. AMD still had to get back above those averages.
A break above $550 would trigger a momentum buy for me. That is near the 50 SMA in my pre-earnings setup. If the rally fades, $450 is key support, and the 200 SMA was near $411 going into the report. I would buy down into either zone.
AMD’s Post-Earnings Pattern: Beats, Then Lower Gaps
Going into this report, AMD had beaten EPS estimates in seven straight quarters. But it opened lower after six of the previous eight reports and finished the following session lower five times. Beat, then fall. That is the pattern I’m watching.
My Earnings Hot Zone chart showed an expected move of ±$35.91. I wanted a strong report, but I also wanted to see the gain hold after the open.
AMD’s After-Hours Results: A Clean Beat and Raise
AMD reported revenue of $13.4 billion, against about $13.1 billion expected. Adjusted EPS was $2.09, against about $1.95 expected; GAAP EPS was $1.46.
Data center was the star. Sales nearly doubled to a record $8.5 billion, up 97%, driven by its Instinct GPUs and EPYC server processors. Gaming was the soft spot, down 40% to $773 million.
The guide is what has the stock moving. AMD guided Q4 revenue to about $17 billion, plus or minus 3%, above the roughly $16.2 billion the Street expected. AMD says scaling its Helios systems and next-generation “Venice” server chips should accelerate growth.
AMD beat on both the top and bottom line and guided above the Street. That is a clean beat and raise on AI demand. The conference call was scheduled for 2:00 p.m. PT / 5:00 p.m. ET.
AMD’s Q3 client revenue was $2.9 billion, roughly 22% of total sales. Tonight’s EPS beat makes eight in a row.
AMD’s After-Hours Move Exceeds the Expected Move
AMD is flying past the expected move in after-hours trading. After a clean beat and raise, AMD was trading at $528.91 as of 1:44:40 p.m. PT / 4:44:40 p.m. ET on November 3, 2026. That is up $45.01, or 9.30%, from today’s $483.90 regular-session close.
The ±$35.91 expected move put the upside boundary at $519.81 from today’s close. At $528.91, AMD was up about 1.25× the expected move and $9.10 beyond that boundary. After-hours prices move quickly. View AMD’s latest quote.
What I’m Watching Next
It’s a great start, but AMD has to hold above $500 after the market opens tomorrow. We need AMD to hold up tomorrow for the Nasdaq and SMH to hold their 200-day SMAs. I don’t want to see another earnings beat followed by a selloff after the open.
Above $500, I’m looking for a move toward $550. At $528.91, AMD was still $21.09 below that breakout level. If it loses $500, I’ll be watching for more selling in semis and the Nasdaq.
SMH is my leading indicator for the Nasdaq. The 200 SMA area could be an attractive buy spot if it holds, and a strong AMD report gives semis a reason to bounce. Personally, I think a lot of the panic and selling has been overdone. I’m still a believer in the AI revolution, and I’m going to continue buying stocks during this downturn.
I am also shorting companies that get hammered post-earnings. Any ticker that falls 1.5× to 2× its expected move is a short candidate for me. I’m looking at the post-earnings move and the support zones to decide whether a stock will keep falling.
ANET, ALAB, SMCI and SWKS are also on tonight’s earnings calendar, followed by ARM and QCOM tomorrow. There is always tradable opportunity for us. Follow my Options Earnings calendar for the next reports.
Live Trade With Me
Join me in the Mastering the Trade room at Simpler Trading. We’ll go through these earnings reactions and the trades I’m watching.
Disclosure: I’m long AMD stock and long SMH.
