Thursday, September 10th, 2026
Hi Traders!
The Nasdaq futures were a little soft on Wednesday, but the price action still looks constructive, with squeezes appearing all over the place. I love consolidation because ultimately, it leads to momentum breakouts, which, of course, I love to trade!
The Nasdaq futures have been sideways, stuck just below the key resistance level at 30,000. This is the zone the index has been stuck in since mid-August. We are still sitting under the highs from earlier this year, and with each slip, buyers have been showing up every time the market attempts to fall.
Nasdaq Futures – Daily Chart 9.6.26
While the back-and-forth action is akin to watching paint dry, ultimately, I’m still viewing it as a key moment of consolidation that will likely serve up multiple tradeable moves. The indexes consolidating into a squeeze always give me some of my best moves!
The Semiconductors are Leading the Way – Higher
The semiconductors are still acting like the leaders they have historically been. Memory and chip names pulled back hard this summer, but as they were previously the top area of relative strength in this market, that is the space I continue to focus on. Why? When the trend resumes, I want to focus on where relative strength was.
Yes, sectors can rotate, and money can flow into different areas of the market, but ultimately, in a strong bull market, I want to focus on what was strong prior to the downdraft, eyeing the moment in time when it will come back.
Seasonal factors are real, but price action still comes first. For decades, it has been the weakest month of the year for stocks. The S&P 500 has a slightly negative average return in September, going back to 1950. It finishes the month higher less than half the time. The Nasdaq has a similar story. Fund managers tidy up books heading into the quarter-end. Summer trading fades. People come back from vacation and start selling what did not work. I always watch for it. I do not trade the calendar by itself, though. I trade the technicals and the price action in front of me, while keeping seasonality in mind.
If September weakness shows up, the Nasdaq would show a true failure at the 30k resistance area, and the semiconductors would roll over. Instead, we are seeing consolidation directly below this critical resistance zone, with price above the 50 SMA on the daily chart. The pullbacks have been shallow. The dips keep getting bought. Major names like Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft, and more continue to break out. AMD was up over 6% on Tuesday on a break above the 50 SMA. The relative strength groups I care about are not falling apart. September isn’t over yet, but without a major failure, the path of least resistance is higher.
SMH – The North Star
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF SMH actually climbed back above its 50-day average, along with multiple key SMH stocks. That is a buy signal for me. On Tuesday, it closed back above its 50-day average, which is just the average price over the last 50 trading days. Today, the price action is holding that reclaim, with SMH trading around $574.That line matters to me. When a strong group dips below it and then climbs back over it, the technicals often signal the pullback is done and buyers are back in control. I treat that as a buy signal, not because a line on a chart is magic, but because it tells me the trend is trying to resume.
Chips have been the relative strength area of this market. Memory has been a big piece of that. When SMH performs well, Nasdaq futures are more likely to hold up. That is why this buy signal in SMH is key and pivotal to the health of the overall market.
Seasonality vs. Technicals
The technicals in Nasdaq futures look like we are heading toward new all-time highs. I think a lot of that will become more clear as we start to see positioning ahead of October earnings. That is the next real catalyst. Traders do not wait for the first report to start building into the names they expect to work. That does not mean every day goes straight up. Today’s price action is a reminder of that. Oil can steal the headline. The Dow can lag. A few big names can slosh around. I am fine with that. As long as Nasdaq futures hold this range and the strong groups keep acting strong, I stay pointed higher.
Always manage risk. A buy signal is not a promise, but memory stocks like MU are breaking out. I took profits on my long MU trade in the Mastering the Trade room yesterday. Check out the chart below, with the perfect pre-earnings momentum rally…!
MU – Daily Chart: Earnings Hot Zone 9.6.26
Long MU working in a textbook run into earnings, fashioning during what is normally a bearish September, is a sign that the market is healthier than seasonality suggests.
Trade smart,
