May 1, 2026
Hey Traders,
Next week is a big one for the AI trade. We’re getting fresh reads from AMD (Tuesday AMC), ARM (Wednesday AMC), and Palantir (Monday AMC).
All three have perfect earnings beat streaks (AMD 7/7, ARM 8/8, PLTR 8/8) and sit right in the heart of the AI boom — but the Hot Zone stats reveal very different historical price behavior around earnings versus what the Street is currently pricing in.
I’ve loaded the latest Hot Zone charts with every key stat so you can see the historical edge (or risk) at a glance. Below, I break down the consensus numbers versus the actual Hot Zone history and current technical setup for each name.
To make your own Options Earnings Calendar & Watchlist for next week, click here to go to OptionsEarnings.com
AMD – Q1 2026 (Tuesday, May 5 AMC)
Consensus: ~$9.84–9.89B revenue (+32% YoY), ~$1.30 EPS (+35% YoY)
Company guided $9.8B ±$300M with ~55% gross margin.
Hot Zone Stats vs Numbers:
- 7-for-7 beats, zero misses
- Pre-ER 21-day average: +8.47% ($30.03) — very strong run-up tendency
- Pre-ER 8-day average: -0.85% (slight drift)
- Post-ER 8-day average: -2.06% ($7.29)
- Average gap: -4.1% (with upside gaps averaging +5.5% and downside -7.3%)
- Implied 1SD move: $19.02 (IV 71%, Rank 83% — elevated but not extreme)
Technicals right now: AMD has been on a tear, pushing into all-time highs around $360 with a powerful vertical move. The chart shows consistent gap-and-go behavior on beats, but post-earnings follow-through has been choppy historically.
For a pullback within the expected range, about $35, this would create a fantastic buy opportunity for traders who would like to jump on the trend.
ARM Holdings – Q4 FY2026 (Wednesday, May 6 AMC)
Consensus: ~$1.47B revenue (+18% YoY), ~$0.58 EPS.Hot Zone Stats vs Numbers:
- 8-for-8 beats, zero misses
- Pre-ER 21-day average: +3.0% ($6.30)
- Pre-ER 8-day average: -0.15% (essentially flat)
- Post-ER 8-day average: -3.99% ($8.40) — the weakest of the group historically
- Average gap: -4.5% (upside gaps +4.3%, downside -5.8%)
- Implied 1SD move: $16.74 (IV 86%, Rank 79% — very elevated)
Technicals right now: ARM has also been in a strong uptrend, recently breaking out toward $214–$230 zone. The Hot Zone shows solid pre-earnings drift but consistent post-earnings selling pressure. Royalty revenue growth will be the make-or-break metric — it’s the purest read on AI chip shipment momentum across the ecosystem.
However, ARM has also historically pulled back post-earnings, and after a historic rally, don’t be surprised if it does again. Again, this would provide a buying opportunity between $180-200 a share.
Palantir (PLTR) – Q1 2026 (Monday, May 4 AMC)
Consensus: ~$1.54B revenue (+74% YoY), ~$0.29 EPS (+123% YoY).Hot Zone Stats vs Numbers:
- 8-for-8 beats, zero misses
- Pre-ER 21-day average: +12.57% ($17.49) — exceptionally strong
- Pre-ER 8-day average: +3.76% ($5.24)
- Post-ER 8-day average: +10.73% ($14.93) — by far the strongest follow-through of the three
- Average gap: +5.0% (upside gaps +13.9%, downside -9.7%)
- Implied 1SD move: ~$4.99 (IV 66%, Rank 42% — relatively tame)
Technicals right now: PLTR is trading near $145 after experiencing two earnings reversals. The Hot Zone paints a very bullish picture — big pre-earnings runs and even bigger post-earnings pops on average. Lower IV rank suggests the market is less nervous than it was in prior quarters.
Key things to watch: Commercial vs Government split (commercial expected +94% YoY), AIP platform adoption metrics, new customer adds/bootcamp traction, and full-year 2026 guidance. This is the purest AI software test case.
I’m bullish on PLTR, but excitement has waned over the last two quarters. PLTR needs 1.5x the expected MMM to break out of this recent downtrend and continue on and upwards. Without that, new lows for the year are possible, so we will have to see how the market reacts to earnings.
Bottom Line / Trading Takeaways
I discussed these tickers and more on Bloomberg: The Close on Friday after the bell.
All three names have flawless beat records, but the Hot Zone tells a nuanced story:
- AMD offers the biggest potential upside gap but carries the most post-earnings volatility.
- ARM has the highest implied move and historically the weakest post-ER follow-through.
- PLTR stands out with the strongest historical post-earnings performance and more muted IV, most recently, it’s reacted poorly to earnings.
AI demand remains the rising tide, but these prints will give us the first real test of whether the Street’s sky-high expectations hold up. Clean beats + raised guidance = continuation.
Any softening in AI capex commentary or margin pressure = first real air pocket in these names.
Stay sharp,
@traderDanielle
