Hey traders!
This week, NVDA earnings are the main event. It’s the most-watched report on the calendar, and with the stock’s massive weight in the indices and the AI trade, the reaction can drive significant volatility across the market. Everything from semiconductors to the broader Nasdaq tends to move with it, so this is the catalyst we need to respect and prepare for.
SMH and the Nasdaq are sitting below the 50 SMA
On the daily chart, both SMH and the Nasdaq are trading below their 50-day simple moving averages, and SMH has now gapped below the 100 SMA after another -2.43% move today. High-volatility stocks continue to break down, which is the kind of price action we often see heading into September. That month carries classic bearish seasonality, and the technical picture is lining up with it.
When tech leaders start losing the 50 SMA and high-beta names roll over, it usually signals that traders should tighten risk and stay selective rather than chase every bounce. Especially given the number of tickers below this zone, along with a lack of bullish news related catalysts in the market, this continues to put pressure on stocks to the downside.
At this rate, it would take a break above $590 to sustain the bullish trend, and trading at $546 today puts us solidly below that level.
NVDA’s Earnings Hot Zone Stats
In prior years, NVDA often saw massive share-price increases in the weeks leading up to earnings. Looking at the Earnings Hot Zone ThinkorSwim screenshot I uploaded, you can see how NVDA rallied more substantially in the past, but over the last year, the share price has mainly chopped and consolidated, with a few breakout moments, mostly before earnings.
Over the last year, post-earnings moves have been much more muted, which I believe has been a major cause of the lack of staying breakouts in the share price. The stock still trends, but the explosive gaps and multi-day runs that once defined the earnings period have quieted down. That shift matters for how we size positions and manage expectations around the report.
I believe much of the lack of movement in the share price is due to high expectations and a slowing rate of growth. In 2024, NVDA had 126% revenue growth, in 2025, it had 114% revenue growth, and this year, we are down to 65% revenue growth. While the growth rate has slowed from extreme peaks, it is still fantastic! However, this will impact the share price’s growth, as shown below.
Expected Move and Key Fundamentals to Watch
Options are pricing an expected move of roughly 6% this week around the NVDA report. That’s still a sizable range for a stock of this size, but it’s more contained than some of the larger historical swings. On the fundamental side, the numbers everyone will focus on are revenue (consensus of $92 billion), EPS (near $2.09), data-center segment growth, and commentary on AI demand and next-quarter guidance. Those are the metrics that tend to drive the immediate reaction and set the tone for the rest of the semiconductor complex.
I’m getting ready to hedge for September as long as the technicals remain broken down below the 50 SMA, and watching NVDA closely, along with SMH and the broader market impact.
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