August 12th, 2026
We continue to see explosive post-earnings moves in the stock market, with two notable moves occurring today in both SpaceX and Nebius. I’ve been less focused on trading the earnings reports themselves and more on trading pre- and post-earnings moves, which are more consistent than overnight earnings trades.
SpaceX (SPCX)
Last week’s newsletter highlighted the high-volume thrust in SpaceX (SPCX) above the post-earnings gap high, the reclaim of key moving averages, steadily expanding volume, and short interest north of 30%. The break above yesterday’s high with another +9.65% upward move today continues to set the stage for a sustained short-squeeze, with upside targets at $150, then $170. As we are sitting just below $150, I expect this level to act as resistance. If and when we break through it, I would expect another push of upside. I’m currently long SPCX, and I added more positions today in the Mastering the Trade room.
If SPCX can generate enough sustained momentum and volume to clear and hold above this zone, the path opens for a much larger short-covering cascade. Elevated short interest means forced buying accelerates once those levels give way—classic fuel for an extended squeeze. Catalysts over the last several sessions have reinforced the bid.
Elon Musk continues to post online about SpaceX, driving a steady stream of catalysts and bullish price action. SpaceX posted a company update video on August 11th, emphasizing the next challenges: making life multiplanetary and understanding the true nature of the universe, while highlighting progress on reusable rockets and rebuilding the internet in space via Starlink.
Recent Musk comments have underscored Starlink’s potential dominance in bandwidth (including for AI/robotics demand, possible >90% of IP traffic scenarios, constellation growth beyond 100k satellites, and massive future throughput from V3+ satellites launched on Starship). He has also reiterated aggressive Starship cadence goals (daily flights possible within a year) and orbital ambitions following the recent earnings discussion.
These updates create regular catalysts and a buying driver, and while the unpredictable nature of social media posts will always be challenging, it’s really a combination of price action and news-related catalysts that fuel short squeezes. Bottom line on SPCX: The breakout is following through.
NBIS (Nebius Group) – Major Post-Earnings Gap and Likely Squeeze
Let’s talk about another one of my favorite stocks, plus its historical post-earnings move today: Nebius (NBIS).
NBIS just delivered a major gap-up move after earnings.
The move aligns with the “Five Star” earnings framework (history of strong post-earnings responses, hot-zone averages, gap statistics). This is the kind of post-earnings explosion that traps shorts. NBIS has carried elevated short interest (recent figures around 24–28% of float / ~61M shares, with days-to-cover in the 3+ range), creating classic squeeze conditions when positive fundamental surprises hit.
I highlighted NBIS on Making Money with Charles Payne (Fox Business) on August 4 in the context of high-conviction AI infrastructure / neocloud names. The post-earnings gap and volume confirm the setup I was watching—strong revenue beat driven by AI cloud demand (contracts scaling, capacity guidance raised), which is exactly the fundamental catalyst that forces covering.
This stock closed up over +34% today, went out on the highs, and it has a daily squeeze that has yet to fire. With this one explosive earnings move and a trade into $259.20, it’s now just below the previous all-time high at $299.86. The breakout above the 50 SMA, which it completed today post-earnings, is one of my favorite entry points for a buy. This is because it is when the stock rebounds from the resistance zone, and short sellers scramble. This is exacerbated by the earnings gap.
Both SPCX and NBIS illustrate the same core principle: high short interest + technical breakout/gap + catalyst = asymmetric opportunity.
