April 22, 2026
Good afternoon, traders!
In our April 10 “Fox Business Spotlight” edition, I walked you through the exploding Neocloud / AI infrastructure theme and flagged $NBIS (Nebius Group) as one of the highest-conviction names on my watchlist.
Today, I’m following up on this trade because this one is playing out like a true Five Star Pattern that it is.
NBIS Update: The Setup Is Playing Out in Real Time
If you missed the April 10 issue (still live here), here’s what I laid out:
- Specialized cloud provider built for the GPU/AI era with massive contract momentum (Meta, Microsoft, and others)
- High short float → short sellers getting squeezed on breakouts
- Earnings Hot Zone momentum
- Clean technicals: holding the 50 SMA and 34 EMA on the weekly chart
- Daily + weekly squeeze ready to fire
Fast-forward to this morning (April 22):
$NBIS is trading right around $157.73, up nicely from the April 10 breakout levels. It tagged a fresh high of $168.71 last week, directly at my 1.272% Fibonacci extension target, and is now consolidating in the $157–160 zone, which is directly at my noted price target. As you can see, we are two dots into the squeeze, and with each squeeze typically lasting 8-10 bars, this setup could still have juice.
Keep in mind that the “easiest” part of the move has already been made, but typically, I will see tickers consolidate again before making the next leg higher.
Look at that weekly squeeze on the chart above — it’s a textbook slingshot squeeze, where the ticker pulls back into support, consolidates, and potentially appears as though it may break down, but instead that momentum shifts and slingshots higher. The SqueezePRO indicator has fired, and the weekly moving averages (especially the 21 EMA at 111.41 and the longer-term supports) are holding beautifully. One of my favorite weekly squeeze buy spots is at the 34 EMA support zone at $100, which I highlighted back on April 10. This is exactly the kind of higher-timeframe setup the Five Star System loves.
Want to trade live with me? Join me at Simpler Trading next week for our Mastering the Trade Room Open House, where I’ll be doing a special session on Monday to kick off Magnificent 7 Earnings Week.
Why NBIS Was (and Still Is) a Top Earnings Hot Zone Pick
Here’s the real power behind timing this name — the stats that made it stand out as a top Earnings Hot Zone candidate:
A weekly squeeze can consolidate for weeks, if not months, on end. That can make it difficult to time an options trade unless you use multiple weekly series and give yourself some time. I have an additional method for timing these trades: using my Earnings Hot Zone to identify moments when the setup is likely to take off. My favorite time is the period before earnings, also known as the Hot Zone. This is because pre-earnings momentum can really take off on tickers that historically rally before earnings as investors anticipate reports.
From the Earnings Hot Zone chart:
- Pre-ER 21 Days Average Move: 16.64% ($26.06 on current price)
- Pre-ER 8 Days Average Move: 13.15% ($20.58)
- 5 out of 5 quarters beat estimates (0 misses)
- Average Gap Up: +5.5%
- We are now just 5 days to earnings (expected around April 29)
That 16.64% average pre-earnings move in the 21-day window is huge — and the weekly squeeze we’re watching is the perfect setup to capture it.
We’ve already seen the first leg of this move (the breakout to $168.71). Now the question is: will the next pre-earnings sprint deliver another double-digit move? The historical pattern and the technicals say the odds are strongly in our favor.
Updated Outlook & Price Targets
Next upside targets:
- $182 (next Fibonacci target at the 1.618% extension level)
- $200+ (key psychological value target)
Support to watch: $150–$153 zone at the 8 EMA on the daily chart (aggressive pullback zone) and $130-140 for a deeper pullback.
Bottom line: This is the Five Star System working exactly as designed — fundamentals + technicals + timing = winners before they take off. Subscribers who jumped in on the April 10 setup have already seen the move to $168+ and are now positioned for the next catalyst.
The Bigger Picture: Neocloud Theme Still in Early Innings
The AI infrastructure build-out I highlighted in the April 10 issue is not a one-quarter story. Specialized cloud names like NBIS are winning big contracts because hyperscalers need more GPU-optimized capacity than the big three can deliver on their own. This theme still has plenty of runway.
Quick subscriber takeaway: When a name checks every box on the Five Star checklist — high short interest, Earnings Hot Zone stats like a 16%+ average pre-earnings move, and a perfect weekly squeeze — using the Earnings Hot Zone to time entries before a pre-earnings rally can be a great spot to get in.
I’ll be keeping an eye on NBIS next week as it reports earnings. Keep in mind that tickers that rally so strongly before earnings don’t tend to make a huge bullish move post-earnings, but it doesn’t mean the ticker has shifted; it only means that the move has already happened and was priced in. The expected move over earnings on NBIS is currently at +/-$3.50, so unless it makes a 2x move to the downside and breaks the major trend, I will maintain my bullish thesis.
Mastering the Trade Open House
Want to check out my live sessions where I analyze and trade tickers like NBIS? Join me in the trading room this week — click here for open house access
I’ll be going over NBIS levels live, scanning for the next setups, and walking through any new Earnings Hot Zone names that are lining up.
Trade well,
P.S. If you’re not already in the room, this is one of the best weeks to jump in — we’re in the thick of earnings season with multiple high-conviction setups firing. See you live!
